I have said before that the merits of Johan Santana aren’t something that I want to waste time debating on this blog. Things change, Journal News Yankee Beat Writer Peter Abraham has questioned JohaNY with small sample size garbage.
Here’s a little quiz, baseball fans:
Nick Shlain: Ooo, fun.
This pitcher was 3-2 with a 5.70 ERA against teams from the AL East last season (not counting the Yankees).
NS: Yeah, stats don’t get more random and meaningless than this. What are we supposed to take from these? It doesn’t say how many innings are in this sample, but I would guess it couldn’t be more than 50. So, we should just judge Johan on a random 50 IP instead of one of the greatest four year runs in the history of baseball? My sample is bigger and better.
He was 5-7, 4.04 in the second half of the season, allowing 88 hits (16 of them home runs) over 98 innings. The 33 home runs he allowed for the season were nine more than in any other previous season. Scouts have noticed he appears hesitant to throw his slider.
NS: Do you know what the Yankees team ERA was in ‘07? 4.49. Even with his “bad” second half he was better than the Yankees last year. What was JohaNY’s ERA in the first half? 2.75.
The “reluctance” to throw his slider is a bit of a red flag, but I’m not too worried about it.
Oh, by the way here are his
PECOTA Comps
Sandy Koufax
Tom Seaver
Steve Carlton
He has one victory in five career playoff starts.
NS: I was wrong, his stats do get more random and meaningless.
The playoffs are a crapshoot, so are playoff numbers. They are inconsistent from year-to-year and from regular season to post season.
Also, wins? Are you kidding?
Yeah, Johan has only won one game, but in the ‘04 ALDS against the Yankees he had a 0.75 ERA in 12 IP in 2 starts. He pitch very well. But, how many wins did he get? Just one. There is proof that wins don’t prove how good or bad a pitchers preformance was.
Santana has a 3.97 career post season ERA with 32 K and 10 BB in 34 IP. That tells the story, however random and still pointless it may be.
Look, I love Johan Santana and if the Yankees can get him for IPK, the Melkman and another kid, than good for them. That is doubtful, however, and I’m not so sure this is a pursue-at-all-costs move.
NS: What is his definition of pursue-at-all-costs? The Yankees aren’t trading ARod and Jeter for him.
Santana was once a kid. The Twins plucked him out the Houston system, nurtured him in the bullpen for the better part of four years and then he exploded. Why can’t the Yankees stick with their plan?
NS: What does any of this mean? If Phil Hughes is going to be in the bullpen for the next four years, then I want JohaNY.
Name me all the pitchers with $100 million contracts that proved worth the price. Plenty will people tell you Santana is different and maybe he is. He probably is. Or maybe he’s the next Mike Hampton or Kevin Brown or Barry Zito.
NS: Why group together all of the pitchers with $100M contracts? Why is that a measure of how Santana will hold up? Wouldn’t a group of LHP who are <6′0 and <200 lbs and rely on velocity be a better measure of how he holds up?
“Maybe he is.”? Yeah, MAYBE Johan Santana is better than Hampton, Brown and Zito.
PeteAbe, listen up: Johan Santana is really really good and he isn’t “maybe” better than every pitcher in the game, he just IS better than every pitcher in the game.