ARod vs. Papi, this isn’t even a debate

By Nick Shlain

The following is a stupid stupid column (needed to be said twice) about how David Ortiz, not ARod, is the 2007 American League MVP. Jason Tuohey, take notes.

Sorry ARod, MVP Stands for Most Valuable Papi

Nick Shlain: Oh boy. 

Although the Red Sox World Series victory promises a painful offseason in New York, some Yankees fans will take solace when Alex Rodriguez brings another Most Valuable Player award to the Bronx.

NS: Red Sox fan much?

Major League Baseball doesn’t announce the MVP awards until Monday, but it’s considered a mere formality in the American League this year. Even the casual fan knows A-Rod already has the trophy wrapped up in a tidy, pinstriped bow.

NS: Even those idiot casual fans.

Meanwhile, the consensus on David Ortiz is that he had an off year.

NS: I couldn’t give less of a shit about the consensus of stupid casual fans and casual writers.

But, you can make the argument that this wasn’t a typical Ortiz year because his ISO slipped from .349 to .290 as he hit 19 fewer HRs in ‘07 than he did in ‘06.  

Despite being a Boston folk hero on par with John Hancock or Paul Revere, Ortiz’s homer total dipped and he didn’t launch nearly as many walk-off blasts into the bleachers. Unlike in 2005, when a battle raged over which player meant more to his team, this year even the most hah-dened New England fans concede A-Rod deserves the award.

NS: Really? So there are some intelligent Red Sox fans?

Don’t believe it.

NS: Well, this isn’t one of them.

Although it’s a little tougher to see at the first glance of a stat sheet, Big Papi was as dangerous as ever this year — and the real MVP of the American League.

NS: It is tougher to see things that aren’t there.

True, A-Rod’s eye-popping power numbers (54 homers, 156 RBI) make Ortiz’s 35 round-trippers and 117 ribbies look downright pedestrian. On top of that, A-Rod led the league with a gaudy .645 slugging percentage — the best measure of a hitter’s power.

NS: This is not helping your argument.

But Ortiz had a better batting average than A-Rod (.332 to .314), and the burly DH added a league-best 111 walks to compile a sterling .445 on base percentage, easily the best in the AL and 23 points higher than A-Rod’s. Put simply, pitchers had a much more difficult time getting Ortiz out.

NS: Sorry, but .023 points in OBP doesn’t qualify as “a much more difficult time” getting anyone out.

Also, OBP is a nice stat, but it only tells us one thing: how often one gets on base. A lead in that category doesn’t make Ortiz is the MVP.

In fact, only seven Red Sox players have ever recorded on base percentages higher than Ortiz’s in a season. Six have plaques in Cooperstown, and the other is Manny Ramirez.

NS: Who cares about Ortiz’s place in Red Sox history? It has absolutely nothing to do with your main focus of the column.

Ortiz’s prolific on base percentage even made his teammates look better. Mike Lowell had the lowest home run total of any Sox player with 120 RBIs since the dead ball era, a direct result of hitting behind Big Papi.

NS: So Mike Lowell’s inability to hit home runs makes Ortiz the MVP?

Ya know what helped Lowell more than Ortiz? The fucking huge wall in left field as Lowell OPS-ed .993 in Fenway and .967 on the road.

However, Ortiz was much more than an on base machine this season. While A-Rod paced the league in slugging percentage, Ortiz finished third with a respectable .621, the second best total of his career. Papi made up for hitting “only” 35 homers by crushing 52 doubles and leading the league in extra base hits. Contrary to popular opinion, Ortiz didn’t hit for less power in 2007, he merely diversified his portfolio. As a result, Ortiz ended in a virtual tie with Boston’s favorite glove-slapper for the league OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging) crown, 1.066 to A-Rod’s 1.067.

NS: Yes that is true, but ARod didn’t play in a park with a huge ass wall ten feet behind the shortstop position, did he? Hey, maybe that wall helped Ortiz hit all those doubles?

So, why don’t we lose that huge park advantage with some Adjusted OPS?

ARod: 177
ORtiz: 171

And despite A-Rod’s 156 RBIs, Ortiz performed better in the clutch, outhitting the Yankees third baseman with runners in scoring position, .358 to .333, and also posting a higher OPS in the same situation, 1.142 to 1.138.

NS: BA w/ RISP isn’t the best way to measure “clutchness.” 

OPS in Late & Close (7th inning or later, down one, up one or tied)

ARod: 1.125
Ortiz: .766

A-Rod drove in more runs, in part, because he had 29 more at bats with runners in scoring position. RBI crowns come pretty easy when you hit behind Derek Jeter, but it’s a different story when you spend half a season waiting for Julio Lugo to get on base.

NS: Derek Jeter is better than Julio Lugo…..Papi is the MVP!!!11!!1!!!1

I don’t like RBIs either, but don’t slight ARod because the players around him are good.

Ultimately, flashy numbers are just vanity without a pennant race to add context. In September nobody brought his game to a higher level than Ortiz. With Manny Ramirez on the sidelines and the bullpen imploding, Ortiz was at his best, balky knee and all. His .396 average, .517 on base percentage, .824 slugging percentage, and 1.341 OPS kept the team from losing its hold on the division.

NS: The way to argue about who is a better play is you take things that are important and see who was significantly better. This bullshit about September preformance is bad for two reasons:

1. Looking at just September is stupid.
2. ARod posted a 1.193 OPS in September, no slouch at all.

In the last week of the season, when every win became life or death, Papi somehow found a higher gear. Despite limping around on one good knee, Ortiz hit a mind-boggling .647 with a 2.139 OPS. He hit three homers and only struck out twice. And in case you missed it, the Red Sox, not the Yankees, won the division, tied for the best record in baseball, and earned home field advantage that proved crucial to their championship playoff run.

NS: This is the dumbest shit ever. The last week of the season wasn’t life or death. Even if Ortiz went 0-for-the week, the Red Sox STILL would’ve made the playoffs because of this thing called the Wild Card.

Also, the last week of the season OPS is fucking stupid. Who cares about OPS over a random 7 days? It is too small of a sample to tell anything from it.

But, I thought the Yankees players were so much better, which made it so much easier for ARod to get on base, how did they not win the division? You double standard moron.

A-Rod, to be fair, hit well in September too, putting up a .362 average and a 1.193 OPS. But he was just good enough to finish second. Papi was on another plane.

NS: Yeah because Ortiz finished 1st in the AL East in ‘07, not the Boston Red Sox and ARod was the WC, not the New York Yankees. Team accomplishments don’t mean dick in the MVP race.

Of course, there’s also the DH factor. The plodding Ortiz doesn’t contribute on the basepaths and with the glove the way A-Rod does. But while A-Rod’s 24 steals certainly deserve respect, they weren’t the difference between wins and losses. For a Yankees team that averaged six runs a game, one steal a week wasn’t exactly a monumental event.

NS: I’d agree, but being a threat on the bases and playing defense is better than not being a threat on the bases and not playing defense.

Rodriguez possesses a reputation as a good fielder, but the stats don’t necessarily back it up. He finished second to last in the AL in range factor (putouts plus assists per game). His zone rating (number of plays a player makes within his “zone”) and fielding percentage ranked in the middle of the pack and an adjusted zone rating stat offered by analysts at The Hardball Times put A-Rod second to last among AL starters. See a pattern forming here? And think about it: When was the last time you saw a highlight of A-Rod diving to stop a screaming line drive or charging a bunt to gun down a batter? Defensive stats never tell the whole story, but clearly A-Rod isn’t the second coming of Brooks Robinson.

NS: Nobody is fucking calling him Brooks Robinson, you moron. But, ARod is a pretty good defensive 3B. Not great, not terrible, just pretty good and that is a big advantage over a guy that sat on the bench resting his steroid effected knees.  

Furthermore, if you’re going to count contributions beyond hitting, you need to look at clubhouse leadership. Ortiz handled the role of Red Sox father figure with his usual dignity and class, even in the face of injuries. He helped keep a clubhouse full of new faces and rookies loose and stable. In contrast, A-Rod’s teammates often found themselves answering questions about what he yelled during infield pop-ups or his choice of, uh, extra-curricular activities.

NS: Actually, fielding and running the bases may not be hitting, but being a “leader in the clubhouse” isn’t even part of the game. I’d take a good fielder and baserunner over a “leader in the clubhouse” (isn’t that a golf term?).

Also, cheating on your wife doesn’t disqualify you from winning the MVP.

This year Red Sox fans got so caught up with the intensity of a World Series and the emergence of a fresh crop of youngsters that Ortiz’s historic season fell by the wayside. But he’s still the catalyst of the Red Sox offense, the leader of the best team in baseball, and the most deadly hitter alive. Sorry A-Rod, but that’s an MVP.

NS: “Most deadly hitter alive”? Is that some kind of shot at his heart trouble from steroids?

It is very easy to prove that ARod is the MVP:

OPS+ 177 to 171
EqA .339 to .337
EQR 138 to 123
FRAA+ 27 to being a lazy DH
SB 24 to 3

and the kicker

WARP 13.7 to 9.6

It’s not even close, ARod was the 2007 American League Most Valuable Player.

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