It might be in the next two weeks. It might be in October. But it’s more likely than ever to happen this winter, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets all panting after the left fielder. (Source)
The left fielder this article is talking about is one Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies.
If I’m the Yankees, I want this guy bad. Bobby Abreu is a FA this off-season and he is clearly in his decline phase as his OPS+ numbers are as such the last three years: 126, 114, 109. Letting Bobby walk creates a hole in right field. The FA class for outfielders this off-season doesn’t look so great. The best value would be to cheaply invest in Juan Rivera and hope he channels his inner-2006. The best talent move would be to just throw cash at Pat Burrell, who is peaking this year.
Still, if I’m the Yankees, I go after Holliday, who is a frontline star in this league. Nate Silver’s PECOTA projects Holliday to post EqAs, which are park adjusted for Coors Field, in the mid-.290s for years to come.
Trading for him now allows Hideki Matsui to have surgery on his knee and get ready for next year while not losing production. It also allows Johnny Damon to DH while he trys to recover from injury, the Yanks would play Holliday in LF for the rest of this year and then have him move to right to replace Abreu in ‘09, when Damon would be ready to assume LF duties again.
What would the Yankees have to give up, you ask?
The Yankees can’t trade any important peice from their big club because they are in a pennant race vieing for the playoffs. Their most valuable minor leaguer is their Double-A CF Austin Jackson. It wouldn’t be painless, but I would move a package centered around AJax for Holliday.
The Yankees might have enough offensive regression in the second half to make the playoffs without making a move. Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, and Abreu should all see their numbers comeback to the norm. But, Holliday, 28, makes this team better now and for years to come. AJax might be a star in centerfield, but if the Yankees acquire Holliday they can afford to carry Melky Cabrera’s bat as long as his above average defense remains.
Acquiring Holliday may be the first of a few moves for the Yankees where they add star players. This off-season the Yankees will have a lot of money coming off the payroll in Abreu, Carl Pavano, Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, and Kyle Farnsworth. Not to mention the new ballpark in the Bronx for next season. Runs at players like Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia wouldn’t be unexpected.
Yes, the Red Sox have won two of the last four World Series and the Devil Rays may have the most loaded organization in the history of baseball, but the Yankees are in a position to add multiple star players in the coming weeks and months. They can be the aging Yankees, the depleted Yankees, or they can make some moves and be the favorites for next season.
The ball is in your court, Brian Cashman, Hank and Hal Steinbrenner.
